A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
